Am J Perinatol 2012; 29(03): 167-174
DOI: 10.1055/s-0031-1284226
Original Article
Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Prediction of Neonatal Metabolic Acidosis in Women with a Singleton Term Pregnancy in Cephalic Presentation

Michelle E.M.H. Westerhuis
1   Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht
*   These authors contributed equally to this study.
,
Ewoud Schuit
2   Department of Epidemiology, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht
*   These authors contributed equally to this study.
,
Anneke Kwee
1   Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht
,
Nicolaas P.A. Zuithoff
2   Department of Epidemiology, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht
,
Rolf H.H. Groenwold
2   Department of Epidemiology, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht
,
Eline S.A. Van Den Akker
3   Department of Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis, Amsterdam
,
Erik Van Beek
4   Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein
,
Hendrikus J.H.M. Van Dessel
5   TweeSteden Hospital, Tilburg
,
Addy P. Drogtrop
5   TweeSteden Hospital, Tilburg
,
Herman P. Van Geijn
6   Free University Medical Centre, Amsterdam
,
Guiseppe C.M. Graziosi
4   Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein
,
Jan M.M. Van Lith
7   Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden
,
Jan G. Nijhuis
8   Maastricht University Medical Centre, Maastricht
,
S. Guid Oei
9   Máxima Medical Centre, Veldhoven
,
Herman P. Oosterbaan
10   Jeroen Bosch Hospital, Hertogenbosch
,
Martina M. Porath
9   Máxima Medical Centre, Veldhoven
,
Robert J.P. Rijnders
10   Jeroen Bosch Hospital, Hertogenbosch
,
Nico W.E. Schuitemaker
11   Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Diakonessenhuis, Utrecht
,
Lia D.E. Wijnberger
7   Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden
,
Christine Willekes
8   Maastricht University Medical Centre, Maastricht
,
Maurice G.A.J. Wouters
6   Free University Medical Centre, Amsterdam
,
Gerard H.A. Visser
1   Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht
,
Ben Willem J. Mol
12   Amsterdam Medical Centre, Amsterdam, Netherlands
,
Karel G.M. Moons
2   Department of Epidemiology, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht
› Author Affiliations
Further Information

Publication History

14 March 2011

06 May 2011

Publication Date:
03 August 2011 (online)

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Abstract

We sought to predict neonatal metabolic acidosis at birth using antepartum obstetric characteristics (model 1) and additional characteristics available during labor (model 2). In 5667 laboring women from a multicenter randomized trial that had a high-risk singleton pregnancy in cephalic presentation beyond 36 weeks of gestation, we predicted neonatal metabolic acidosis. Based on literature and clinical reasoning, we selected both antepartum characteristics and characteristics that became available during labor. After univariable analyses, the predictors of the multivariable models were identified by backward stepwise selection in a logistic regression analysis. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. To correct for potential overfitting, we (internally) validated the models with bootstrapping techniques. Of 5667 neonates born alive, 107 (1.9%) had metabolic acidosis. Antepartum predictors of metabolic acidosis were gestational age, nulliparity, previous cesarean delivery, and maternal diabetes. Additional intrapartum predictors were spontaneous onset of labor and meconium-stained amniotic fluid. Calibration and discrimination were acceptable for both models (c-statistic 0.64 and 0.66, respectively). In women with a high-risk singleton term pregnancy in cephalic presentation, we identified antepartum and intrapartum factors that predict neonatal metabolic acidosis at birth.