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Methods Inf Med 1999; 38(01): 50-55
DOI: 10.1055/s-0038-1634143
Original article
Schattauer GmbH

Optimizing Diagnostic Test Sequences: The Probability Modifying Plot

J. L. Severens
1   Department of Medical Informatics, Epidemiology and Statistics, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands
,
P. F. de Vries Robbé
1   Department of Medical Informatics, Epidemiology and Statistics, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands
,
A. L. M. Verbeek
1   Department of Medical Informatics, Epidemiology and Statistics, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands
› Author Affiliations
Further Information

Publication History

Publication Date:
08 February 2018 (online)

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Abstract:

The problem of deciding the optimal sequence of diagnostic tests can be structured in decision trees, but unmanageable bushy decision trees result when the sequence of two or more tests is investigated. Most modelling techniques include tests on the basis of gain in certainty. The aim of this study was to explore a model for optimizing the sequence of diagnostic tests based on efficiency criteria. The probability modifying plot shows, when in a specific test sequence further testing is redundant and which costs are involved. In this way different sequences can be compared. The model is illustrated with data on urinary tract infection. The sequence of diagnostic tests was optimized on the basis of efficiency, which was either defined as the test sequence with the least number of tests or the least total cost for testing. Further research on the model is needed to handle current limitations.

Keywords:

Diagnostic Tests - Test Sequence - Decision Analysis
 

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