Abstract
The empirical distribution of length of stay of patients in departments of geriatric
medicine is fit extremely well by a sum of two exponentials. Most of the patients
in a geriatric department are rehabilitated and discharged or they die within a few
weeks of admission, but the few who become long-stay patients remain for months or
even years. A model is presented for the flow of patients through a geriatric department,
which has analogies to models of drug flow in pharmacokinetics. The theoretical model
explains why the empirical pattern of length of stay in the occupied beds fits a sum
of two exponentials; conversely, the empirical distribution, obtained from the midnight
bed state report, can be used to study the effect of various policy decisions on both
immediate and future admission rates for the department, and shows the benefits of
policies which reduce long-stay patient numbers by improving long-stay rehabilitation.
Key-Words
Geriatric Medicine - Bed Occupancy - Length of Stay - Patient Flow Model - Operational
Planning - Rehabilitation.
