Predicting variables for hospital mortality after isolated CABG – three years experience with 3825 patients

Aims: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is an established therapy in the treatment of coronary artery disease (CAD). Despite the higher mortality and morbidity in the elderly population, operative results in CABG have continued to improve. On the other hand a particular mortality after isolated GABC remains, which urges for evaluation of predicting variables for hospital mortality after isolated CABG. For risk analysis we performed a retrospective study in a consecutive cohort of patients undergoing isolated CABG.

Methods: In a retrospective study computerized data of 3825 patients (3009 male, 816 female, 68±9 years), who received isolated CABG in a three year period were collected. To identify predictors of hospital mortality a multivariate analysis by forward stepwise logistic regression of 51 perioperative variables was performed.

Results: Overall hospital mortality of the consecutive cohort was 2.1%. Of the variables entered into the multivariate model, five variables (age [p=0.03], diabetes [p=0.03], prolonged ventilation [p=0.0002], new onset of dialysis [p=0.0004], blood transfusion [p=0.0002]) were found to be predictors of increased hospital mortality. Subgroup analysis of hospital mortality of patients >80 years with diabetes (8.9%) was significantly higher compared to overall mortality (p<0.001).

Conclusions: Despite good clinical results and low overall mortality in current use of CABG, future increase of mortality and morbidity might be expected due to higher part of patients with identified predictors.