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CC BY 4.0 · Aorta (Stamford) 2022; 10(04): 210-218
DOI: 10.1055/s-0042-1756671
Special Feature Article

Risk Prediction Models for Management of Patients following Acute Aortic Dissection

Authors

  • Wahaj Munir 

    1   William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, United Kingdom

  • Mohamad Bashir 

    2   Institute of Cardiac and Aortic Disorders, SRM Institutes for Medical Science (SIMS Hospitals), Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

  • Mohammed Idhrees 

    2   Institute of Cardiac and Aortic Disorders, SRM Institutes for Medical Science (SIMS Hospitals), Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

  • Wael I. Awad 

    3   Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Barts Heart Centre, St. Bartholomew's Hospital, London, United Kingdom

Funding None.
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Abstract

Risk prediction of adverse outcomes post aortic dissection is dependet not only on the postdissection-associated clinical factors but on the very foundation of the risk factors that lead up to the dissection itself. There are various such risk factors existing prior to the dissection which impact the postdissection outcomes. In this paper, we review the literature to critically analyze various risk models, burdened by their significant limitations, that attempt to stratify risk prediction based on postdissection patient characteristics. We further review several studies across the literature that investigate the diverse set of predissection risk factors impacting postdissection outcomes. We have discussed and appraised numerous studies which attempt to develop a tool to stratify risk prediction by incorporating the impacts of different factors: malperfusion, blood biochemistry, and perioperative outcomes. The well-validated Penn classification has clearly demonstrated in the literature the significant impact that malperfusion has on adverse outcomes postdissection. Other risk models, already severely hindered by their limitations, lack such validation. We further discuss additional alluded risk factors, including the impact of predissection aortic size, the syndromic and nonsyndromic natures of dissection, and the effects of family history and genetics, which collectively contribute to the risk of adverse outcomes postdissection and prognosis. To achieve the goal of a true risk model, there remains the vital need for appreciation and appropriate consideration for all such aforementioned factors, from before and after the dissection, as discussed in this paper. By being able to incorporate the value of true risk prediction for a patient into the decision-making framework, it will allow a new page of precision medical decision-making to be written.

Keywords

aorta - aneurysm - dissection - risk prediction - genetics


Publication History

Received: 14 August 2021

Accepted: 11 July 2022

Article published online:
15 December 2022

© 2022. The Author(s). This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, permitting unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction so long as the original work is properly cited. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

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