A Monitoring System for Chronic Diseases

A statistical technique for detecting an increase in the rate of a chronic disease is proposed. The technique is based on the time interval between consecutive diagnoses. An increase is considered significant when all the intervals are shorter than the appropriate critical duration. The technique was applied to data collected by a state-wide cancer registry and results are illustrated for two types of cancer.

Eine statistische Technik zur Erkennung der Zunahme der Rate einer chronischen Krankheit wird vorgeschlagen. Die Technik basiert auf dem zeitlichen Zwischenraum zwischen konsekutiven Diagnosen. Eine Zunahme wird als signifikant erachtet, wenn alle Zwischenräume kürzer sind als die angemessene kritische Dauer. Die Technik wurde auf Daten angewandt, die bei einem Krebsregister auf Staatenebene gesammelt wurden, und die Ergebnisse werden für zwei Krebsarten illustriert.

Key-Words

Monitoring System - Poisson Distribution - Exponential Distribution - Epidemics

Schlüssel-Wörter

Überwachungssystem - Poisson-Verteilung - Exponentialverteilung - Epidemien

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