Applying Decision Theory to Medical Decision-Making — Concept of Regret and Error of Diagnosis^[*]

The aim of this study was to confront clinicians with the problem of expressing their intuitive evaluation of a diagnostic error by a numerical measure. The diagnosis of jaundice was used as a model and 6 experienced clinicians were included in the study. The results showed reasonable agreement between clinicians and evidence that values given by each clinician corresponded to his losses estimated by observing his decisionmaking on 50 diagnostic profiles.

Ziel dieser Studie war es, die Kliniker mit dem Problem zu konfrontieren, ihre intuitive Einschätzung eines diagnostischen Irrtums in Form eines Zahlenmaßes auszudrücken. Die Gelbsuchtdiagnose wurde als Modell benutzt. Sechs erfahrene Kliniker wurden in die Studie einbezogen. Die Ergebnisse zeigten eine annehmbare Übereinstimmung unter den Klinikern, und es erwies sich, daß die von jedem Kliniker angegebenen Werte seinen Verlusten entsprachen, die durch die Beobachtung seiner Entscheidungsfindung bei 50 diagnostischen Profilen geschätzt wurden.

Key-Words

Decision Theory - Cost of Error - Medical Diagnosis

Schlüssel-Wörter

Entscheidungstheorie - Kosten des Irrtums - ärztliche Diagnose

^* Request for reprints: Dr. A. Alpérovitch, U.169 Inserm, 16 bis, avenue P. Vaillant Couturier, F-94800 Villejuif (France)

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