Containing Acute Disease Outbreak

Summary

Objective: The objectives of epidemiological surveillance and research of infectious diseases are to address disease prevention, identify outbreaks and monitor and evaluate control strategies. In this paper, we report on the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based on a novel Digital Ring Fence (DRiF) strategy for the containment of acute infectious diseases.

Method: Data from probable cases are captured in a secure database. Postal codes of addresses facilitate precise mapping of the location of each probable case on a multi-layered GIS system. A digital ring fence is constructed around each location (hot-spot) using Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) modeling based on data of individuals coming into contact with each probable case. The radius of the DRiF gives the overall risk of infection from its epicenter, the probable case. By annotating the DRiF to a GIS, areas of population concentrations could be readily identified to direct outbreak containment efforts.

Results: Simulation studies have demonstrated that the DRiF strategy could provide a novel approach to containment of acute disease outbreaks.

Conclusion: SARS has provided convincing evidence that the key to tackling acute infectious disease outbreaks lies in containment and making disease containment one step ahead of its spread. The DRiF strategy achieves this by providing a zone to corral the spread of infection through person-to-person transmission. Other useful applications of the DRiF technique include demarcating culling zone for the containment of bird flu infection and containment of person-to-person transmission should it occur.

Keywords

Outbreak containment - ring-fence - SARS - bird flu - infectious diseases - epidemiological modeling

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