Summary
The promise of the field of Medical Informatics has been great and its impact has
been significant. In 1999, the Yearbook editors of the International Medical Informatics
Association (IMIA) - also the authors of the present paper - sought to assess this
impact by selecting a number of seminal papers in the field, and asking experts to
comment on these articles. In particular, it was requested whether and how the expectations,
represented by these papers, had been fulfilled since their publication several decades
earlier. Each expert was also invited to comment on what might be expected in the
future. In the present paper, these areas are briefly reviewed again. Where did these
early papers have an impact and where were they not as successful as originally expected?
It should be noted that the extraordinary developments in computer technology observed
in the last two decades could not have been foreseen by these early researchers. In
closing, some of the possibilities and limitations of research in medical informatics
are outlined in the context of a framework that considers six levels of computer applications
in medicine and health care. For each level, some predictions are made for the future,
concluded with thoughts on fruitful areas for ongoing research in the field.
Keywords
Medical Informatics - history - forecasting - computing methodologies - information
systems - electronic health records - clinical decision support
