We developed a new diagnostic tool for predicting the severity of ankle sprains just
after injury. Since hard data obtained by diagnostic imaging techniques are still
imperfect, we decided to use data from individual medical history and signs and symptoms
that are part of the admission routine. During a three month-period data were collected
on thirty-five patients with lateral ankle sprains who visited the first aid department
of the University Hospital of Maastricht. Assessments took place at admission and
at two and four weeks after injury. Assessors were the first-aid physician, a physiotherapist
and the patient. Dependent variables were healed ankle in two and four weeks. Predicting
variables were the data obtained at admission by the physician, the physiotherapist
and the patient. The ability to predict outcome after two and four weeks was determined
in a bivariate analysis, followed by logistic modelling. Accurate prediction of recovery
time at admission appeared to be possible. Best two weeks predictor was the modified
function score, an accuracy of 97 % was achieved. Four weeks prediction was most accurate
when function score was used together with the report mark from the doctor and the
palpation score (accuracy of 81 %).
Key words
Ankle sprains - prognosis - functional recovery - diagnosis
