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DOI: 10.1055/s-0044-1792179
Brazilian medical oncologists: current and future perspectives for 2020
Oncologistas no Brasil: perspectivas atuais e futuras para 2020Authors
ABSTRACT
Objective: In the USA there will be a shortage of medical oncologists by 2020. In Europe, a recent study showed that almost all analyzed countries will reach the estimated need. However, no data on this subject is available for Brazil, a developing country with a high cancer incidence. The aim of this study was to predict the Brazilian scenario for 2020. The number of practicing medical oncologists was obtained through Federal Council of Medicine in August 2014.
Methods: Data on cancer incidence (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) since 2008 were obtained from Brazilian National Cancer Institute (INCA).
Results: Cancer incidence estimates for year 2020 were analyzed assuming a stable increase between 2014 and the subsequent years. Ratios of new cancer cases versus number of medical oncologists were calculated for 2014 and for 2020 per each Brazilian region. Based on the variation ratio per year, the Brazilian cancer incidence in 2020 is estimated to be 393,75/100,000 compared with 289,44/100,000 in 2014. The number of medical oncologists in Brazil will increase by 2020 in comparison to 2014, especially due to the growth of training vacancies. There will still be a heterogeneous distribution of medical oncologists through the different Brazilian regions and also a high number of patients per MO.
Conclusion: The more critic region to oncology care seems to be the Midwest. This survey shows the need of a monitoring and planning program in oncology assistance in all Brazilian regions.
RESUMO
Objetivo: Nos EUA, haverá uma escassez de médicos oncologistas em 2020. Na Europa, um estudo recente mostrou que quase todos os países analisados atingirão a necessidade estimada. No entanto, não há dados disponíveis sobre o Brasil, um país em desenvolvimento com alta incidência de câncer. O objetivo deste estudo foi prever o cenário brasileiro para 2020.
Métodos: O número de médicos oncologistas foi obtido através do Conselho Federal de Medicina em agosto de 2014. Os dados sobre incidência de câncer (excluindo o câncer de pele não-melanoma) desde 2008 foram obtidos a partir do Instituto Nacional do Câncer (INCA). Estimativas de incidência de câncer para 2020 foram analisadas assumindo um aumento estável entre 2014 e os anos subsequentes. Taxas de novos casos de câncer versus o número de médicos oncologistas foram calculadas para 2014 e 2020 em cada região brasileira.
Resultados: Com base no ráciona taxa de variação anual, a incidência de câncer no Brasil em 2020 é estimada em 393,75 / 100.000 em comparação a 289,44 / 100.000 em 2014. O número de médicos oncologistas no Brasil aumentará em 2020 em comparação a 2014, especialmente devido ao crescimento de vagas de residência. Haverá, ainda, uma distribuição heterogênea dos médicos oncologistas através das diferentes regiões do Brasil e também um elevado número de pacientes por médicos oncologistas.
Conclusão: A região mais crítica aos cuidados de oncologia parece ser o Centro-Oeste. Esta pesquisa mostra a necessidade de um programa de planejamento e acompanhamento da assistência oncológica em todas as regiões brasileiras.
Publication History
Received: 27 January 2017
Accepted: 28 March 2017
Article published online:
25 February 2025
© 2017. The Author(s). This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, permitting copying and reproduction so long as the original work is given appropriate credit (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Thieme Revinter Publicações Ltda.
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Júlia Plentz Portich, Juliana Giacomazzi, Alessandra Menezes Morelle, Daniela Dornelles Rosa, José Roberto Freitas Rossari, Evandro de Azambuja. Brazilian medical oncologists: current and future perspectives for 2020. Brazilian Journal of Oncology 2017; 13: e-1792179.
DOI: 10.1055/s-0044-1792179
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