Mortality Trend Over 15 Years in Hip Fracture: Mortality at 1 Year Directly Correlates with Mortality at 2 Years

Abstract

Purpose To evaluate the trend in 1 and 2 years, the fatality rate, the waiting time for surgery, and the length of hospital stay in a single center between 2002 and 2016. Also, to evaluate the relationship between the one-year and two-year fatality rates.

Methods A cross-sectional study. Patients older than 60 years of age who were admited due to hip fracture between 2002 and 2016 were included. A request was made to the Chilean National Civil Registry to determine if the patients were alive on June 30, 2019. The Spearman correlation was estimated to determine the trend of the one-year and two-year fatality rates, the age, the type of fracture, and the waiting time for surgery. Also, a linear regression analysis was estimated between the one-year and two-year fatality rates.

Results A total of 961 hip fractures were included. From 2002 to 2016, a downward trend was found in the 1-year (rho = -0.23) and 2-year fatality rates (rho = -0.29), in the proportion of male patients (rho = -0.25), in the length of hospital stay (rho = -0.06), and in the waiting time for surgery (rho = -0.11), not reaching statistical difference. The 1-year fatality rate was of 0,17 (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.14 to 0.19) and the 2-year fatality rate was of 0,26 (95%CI: 0.23 to 0.29). An R² of 0.60 was estimated between the 1-year and 2-year fatality rates.

Conclusions The one-year and two-year fatality rates, the waiting time for surgery, and the length of hospital stay remained constant during the period analyzed. A strong correlation between the one-year and two-year fatality rates was found, which suggests a constant risk of death after hip fracture.

Keywords

hip injuries - mortality rate - epidemiology

Publication History

Received: 23 March 2020

Accepted: 22 March 2021

Article published online:
30 September 2021

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