CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 · Indian J Plast Surg 2021; 54(01): 046-052
DOI: 10.1055/s-0040-1721867
Original Article

Predicting Burn Mortality Using a Simple Novel Prediction Model

Sneha Sharma
1  Department of Burns, Plastic and Maxillofacial Surgery, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi, India
Raman Tandon
1  Department of Burns, Plastic and Maxillofacial Surgery, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi, India
› Author Affiliations


Background Prediction of outcome for burn patients allows appropriate allocation of resources and prognostication. There is a paucity of simple to use burn-specific mortality prediction models which consider both endogenous and exogenous factors. Our objective was to create such a model.

Methods A prospective observational study was performed on consecutive eligible consenting burns patients. Demographic data, total burn surface area (TBSA), results of complete blood count, kidney function test, and arterial blood gas analysis were collected. The quantitative variables were compared using the unpaired student t-test/nonparametric Mann Whitney U-test. Qualitative variables were compared using the ⊠2-test/Fischer exact test. Binary logistic regression analysis was done and a logit score was derived and simplified. The discrimination of these models was tested using the receiver operating characteristic curve; calibration was checked using the Hosmer—Lemeshow goodness of fit statistic, and the probability of death calculated. Validation was done using the bootstrapping technique in 5,000 samples. A p-value of <0.05 was considered significant.

Results On univariate analysis TBSA (p <0.001) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score (p = 0.004) were found to be independent predictors of mortality. TBSA (odds ratio [OR] 1.094, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.037–1.155, p = 0.001) and APACHE II (OR 1.166, 95% CI 1.034–1.313, p = 0.012) retained significance on binary logistic regression analysis. The prediction model devised performed well (area under the receiver operating characteristic 0.778, 95% CI 0.681–0.875).

Conclusion The prediction of mortality can be done accurately at the bedside using TBSA and APACHE II score.

Supplementary Material

Publication History

Publication Date:
04 March 2021 (online)

© 2021. Association of Plastic Surgeons of India. This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonDerivative-NonCommercial-License, permitting copying and reproduction so long as the original work is given appropriate credit. Contents may not be used for commercial purposes, or adapted, remixed, transformed or built upon. (

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